How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The dollar’s international role rests on economic scale, financial depth and the stability of US markets. This February 2025 assessment weighs those advantages against geopolitical pressure and efforts to develop alternatives. It also considers how tariffs and migration restrictions could reinforce the dollar through inflation and monetary policy, even as longer term challenges to its dominance persist.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
A temporary tariff reprieve does not remove the economic costs of uncertainty. Following the February 2025 delay of US measures against Canada and Mexico, this analysis examines disruption in autos, agriculture and energy. Currency depreciation could complicate the trade balance response, while inflation risks create difficult choices for the Federal Reserve and its Canadian and Mexican counterparts.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The January 2025 outlook places policy uncertainty at the center of the global economic picture. Potential US tariff and migration changes complicate inflation prospects, while a strong dollar and elevated interest rates constrain emerging markets. Commodity volatility, geopolitical tensions and longer term climate and demographic pressures add further demands on economic strategy.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
A stronger dollar narrows the room for monetary easing outside the United States. This December 2024 assessment contrasts differing policy paths in advanced economies with the growing influence of Federal Reserve decisions on emerging markets. Persistent core inflation, possible tariff effects and fiscal and geopolitical shifts complicate the choices facing central banks.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Japan's 2025 outlook balances a recovery in household demand against inflation and external risks. Wage gains support consumption, while yen depreciation complicates monetary normalization. The December 2024 assessment also examines exposure to US tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty and investment in automation, green technology and infrastructure.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Stronger productivity and prospective changes in US fiscal, labor and trade policy motivate a reassessment of the neutral interest rate. The December 2024 analysis links higher potential output with persistent inflation pressures and market expectations, arguing that the interest rate baseline should adjust to a more resilient economy.