How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
504 results
Bloomberg reports that the United States attracted almost a third of cross-border investment after the pandemic, supported by higher interest rates and industrial incentives. Jonathan Fortun explains that this concentration has reduced the money reaching emerging markets.
View detailsFortun explains how expectations of prolonged high US interest rates and greater volatility slowed emerging-market inflows in May.
View detailsFortun explains why high US interest rates and market volatility were weakening emerging-market portfolio inflows despite another positive month. He discusses demand for local-currency debt and the conditions under which Chinese equities could recover.
View detailsFortun analyzes rising financing needs and the roles of stimulus, infrastructure and geopolitical spending in public debt.
View detailsFortun attributes April's equity outflows to a more restrictive Federal Reserve outlook and discusses whether Chinese stimulus could improve demand.
View detailsFortun discusses renewed foreign withdrawals from emerging-market portfolios, including equity pressure in India and Indonesia and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy.
View detailsThe evolution of global trade has made emerging economies increasingly important to international production networks. Regional fragmentation and the pandemic exposed weaknesses in those networks. The May 2024 overview examines how emerging markets respond to trade barriers and sanctions, creating new connections while established trading patterns diverge.
Read the workDiscussions at the 2024 Spring Meetings combined concern about fragmentation and political risk with recognition of US economic strength. That resilience also complicated the outlook for monetary easing. A prolonged period of high Federal Reserve rates could strengthen the dollar, raise borrowing costs and weaken the prospects for international capital flows.
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