How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
504 results
Ending Japan's extraordinary monetary easing marked a turning point, but full normalization remained distant in April 2024. The Bank of Japan's large government bond holdings and the market effects of yield curve control complicated the transition. Reducing that footprint gradually carried implications for the yen and public finances.
Read the workWhy did US labor productivity accelerate without a comparable improvement in other advanced economies? The March 2024 analysis examines technology, fiscal support and labor flexibility, emphasizing the contribution of sectors built around specialized knowledge. The expansion of online retail also helped explain the gains.
Read the workStrong headline job growth concealed a narrow concentration of hiring across sectors in early 2024. Rising layoffs suggested a softer labor market than the aggregate employment figures implied. Combined with the assessment that the recent inflation increase was temporary, that evidence supported an expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts soon afterward.
Read the workConflict in the Middle East was rerouting trade and increasing transport costs in early 2024. Yet purchasing managers' surveys did not show a substantial deterioration in delivery times. The analysis distinguishes rising logistics expenses from a broader supply disruption, while warning that a longer or wider conflict could change that balance.
Read the workFortun observes investors positioning for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite uncertainty over their timing, with emerging-market debt issuance expected to benefit.
View detailsUS growth remained resilient even as tighter lending standards slowed the credit impulse in early 2024. Strong household spending and government expenditure helped explain the disconnect between weaker bank lending and continued GDP expansion. Signs of fading consumption momentum nevertheless raised questions about how long that support could last.
Read the workUS disinflation in early 2024 was uneven across spending categories. Services remained a source of persistent pressure, with shelter helping explain the latest strong consumer price reading. The February assessment connects those remaining inflation pressures to the Federal Reserve's cautious communication, despite progress elsewhere in the price index.
Read the workUnusually large capital withdrawals from China suggested a change in how investors assessed geopolitical exposure after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The February 2024 analysis identifies Latin America as a potential beneficiary of portfolio rebalancing. Less restrictive central banks and stronger international debt issuance could further support emerging economies outside China.
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