How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
504 results
Heavy speculative positions against the yen created the risk of a sharp reversal in July 2022. The assessment argues that rising recession fears could reduce expected monetary tightening abroad and shift interest rate differentials in Japan’s favor. Markets had yet to price that change, leaving the currency vulnerable to disorderly appreciation if recession concerns intensified.
Read the workGlobal recession risks could reverse the yen’s weakness in the July 2022 assessment. Rising overseas yields had widened interest rate differentials while Bank of Japan yield curve control held domestic yields down. Falling global rates would reverse that pressure, supporting yen appreciation. This was a forecast based on the policy configuration at the time.
Read the workFortun links a fourth consecutive month of emerging-market outflows to the global inflation and interest-rate shock.
View detailsFortun links a prolonged sequence of emerging-market portfolio outflows with rising global interest rates and inflation pressures.
View detailsRising sovereign spreads complicated the ECB’s planned monetary tightening in June 2022. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine why a firm ceiling on peripheral borrowing spreads could imply unlimited bond purchases and conflict with constraints on monetary financing. They frame the challenge as containing debt market fragmentation without creating an open commitment to finance governments.
Read the workLow sovereign yields could conceal growing dependence on ECB bond purchases. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue that yields held down during the pandemic were insufficient compensation for perceived risks, encouraging foreign investors to sell. Their June 2022 assessment highlights the tension between short term market stability and restoring private demand for peripheral government debt.
Read the workA sharp deterioration in sentiment toward euro area growth stood out at the April 2022 Spring Meetings. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors describe how expectations moved toward their forecast of just one percent growth that year. Beyond discussions of Russia’s war and energy sanctions, they also identify rising concern about possible US sanctions on China, adding uncertainty to an economy already experiencing capital outflows.
Read the workA report coauthored by Fortun and Sergi Lanau attributes emerging-market inflation largely to supply shocks alongside incomplete economic recoveries.
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