Jonathan Fortun

Global macroeconomics

How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.

The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.

Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.

Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.

Research and public conversation

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504 results

November 3, 2022IIF

Global Macro Views: The End of the MMT Illusion

Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance

Market stress in 2022 challenged the idea that advanced economies had unlimited fiscal room. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle connect UK bond turmoil, yen depreciation under Japan’s yield cap and Italy’s reliance on the ECB to constraints on government financing. Their November 2022 assessment argues that low interest rates should not be mistaken for unlimited capacity to borrow.

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October 13, 2022IIF

Global Macro Views: Tracking Russian Oil and Coal

Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance

Identifying the ultimate owners of ships reveals patterns in Russian energy exports that vessel registration and flags can obscure. In October 2022, Jonathan Fortun and coauthors reported that Greek owners accounted for 55 percent of tanker capacity shipping Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine, compared with 35 percent in comparable earlier periods. Extending their tracking database to coal also pointed to rising Russian shipments to India and Turkey.

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October 6, 2022IIF

Global Macro Views: Our EM Exchange Rate Fair Values

Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance

Energy and trade shocks changed the currency valuation landscape after Russia invaded Ukraine. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle extend their October 2022 assessment to emerging markets, identifying overvaluation in the Egyptian pound and Turkish lira alongside substantial undervaluation in the Brazilian real.

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August 18, 2022IIF

Global Macro Views: The Euro Periphery Debt Conundrum

Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance

Reforming Europe’s fiscal rules would not by itself solve the financing problem of peripheral sovereigns. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue in August 2022 that even better estimates of economic slack leave the question of who buys new debt. Their analysis highlights reliance on ECB purchases and the need to bring private investors back.

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