How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
504 results
The October 2021 bond selloff differed from the rise in yields earlier that year. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle find increases spread more broadly across maturities, with a smaller rise in real yields. Greater sensitivity to positive economic surprises suggested renewed focus on recovery and a movement toward, though still short of, conditions seen during the 2013 taper tantrum.
Read the workHigher commodity prices were improving exporters’ terms of trade in September 2021 without delivering the currency gains seen after the global financial crisis. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors examine this disconnect in Brazil and other commodity exporters, including Australia. Its breadth challenges an explanation based solely on Brazilian political risk and raises a broader question about why stronger export prices were failing to lift exchange rates.
Read the workFortun warns that Federal Reserve tapering could tighten global financial conditions, while judging contagion risks less severe than in earlier emerging-market sell-offs.
View detailsWho absorbed the surge in government borrowing during the pandemic? Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle divide demand for 2020 G10 debt issuance among central banks, foreign investors and other buyers. Their August 2021 comparison finds substantial private demand in the United States and Canada, contrasting with reliance on ECB purchases in the euro periphery and more constrained fiscal room there.
Read the workLow government bond yields can overstate the fiscal room available after a crisis. Drawing on emerging market experience, this August 2021 analysis defines fiscal space through access to investors willing to absorb new debt at low yields. It argues that deteriorating market access during the pandemic also affected advanced economies, complicating the case for more deficit spending based on yields alone.
Read the workFortun discusses emerging-market debt issuance and exposure to a possible reduction in Federal Reserve stimulus while equity flows weakened.
View detailsFortun argues that Latin American central banks' ability to anchor inflation expectations and preserve credibility will shape the region's macroeconomic health.
View detailsWhy were long term US yields so low in June 2021? Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle identified temporary forces: subdued labor market releases and reduced Treasury issuance as the government drew down its cash balance. After Federal Reserve purchases, net issuance turned negative in the second quarter. They expected these supports for bond prices to fade, strengthening the case for higher yields in the second half of 2021.
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