How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
504 results
Emerging market bond purchases were much smaller than the extraordinary monetary expansion in advanced economies during May 2020. Jonathan Fortun and coauthors survey central banks with timely data and find limited support to government financing from these programs. They expected concerns about further currency depreciation to constrain the scale of emerging market quantitative easing.
Read the workEmerging markets were beginning to stabilize after the record capital outflows of March 2020. Elina Ribakova, Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Sergi Lanau attributed the shift in sentiment to the Federal Reserve’s exceptional easing. Their daily flow tracking, combined with strong offshore issuance, indicated that nonresident portfolio flows had returned to positive territory in the second quarter as of the report’s May 7 publication.
Read the workFortun identifies central-bank credibility and a flexible peso as strengths for Mexico during the pandemic-related financial shock.
View detailsThe United States deployed a more forceful combination of fiscal support and central bank asset purchases than Japan or the euro area in the early pandemic response. This April 2020 comparison argued that the stronger US intervention could cushion the economic shock, while more conservative support elsewhere risked deeper recessions and slower recoveries. It presents that assessment as an outlook at the time, rather than a judgment based on subsequent outcomes.
Read the workIn reporting on Brazil's foreign-exchange intervention during the pandemic, Fortun explains why economies may seek to limit currency volatility, including balance-sheet mismatches and inflation concerns.
View detailsThe dollar’s tendency to strengthen during crises gave the United States room for an exceptional fiscal and monetary response to COVID in April 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks contrast that advantage with emerging markets, where currency depreciation and rising bond yields constrained government action. They warned that limited policy space could compound the weak growth many emerging economies had already experienced before the pandemic.
Read the workExchange rate changes alone can misrepresent the pressure on emerging market currencies during a crisis. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks combine currency movements with foreign reserve losses to compare the COVID shock in April 2020. Their exchange market pressure indices suggest that observed falls in the Turkish lira and Egyptian pound understated the underlying strain, while Mexico’s larger peso decline reflected more pressure being absorbed directly by the exchange rate.
Read the workExplains why a pandemic-induced change in financing conditions alters the interpretation of emerging-market currency valuations.
Read the work