How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Bloomberg examines the risks of monetary and fiscal stimulus in emerging economies facing capital flight and foreign-currency debt. Jonathan Fortun contrasts the speed of pandemic-era outflows with the more prolonged withdrawals experienced during the global financial crisis.
View detailsThe rapid escalation of the pandemic prompted another downgrade to the global outlook in March 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks cut their growth forecast below 1% as falling oil prices, credit stress and disrupted capital markets amplified the shock. They then expected first half recessions in the United States, euro area and Japan, followed by a recovery later that year.
Read the workValor reports Fortun and Robin Brooks's warning that the pandemic could produce an abrupt interruption in global financing.
View detailsFortun comments on the exceptional scale of early-pandemic capital flight and the particular exposure of Brazil and other Latin American economies.
View detailsCoverage of a study by Fortun and Robin Brooks explores the relationship between credit expansion and economic activity in Brazil and other emerging economies.
View detailsRepeated credit expansions supported Turkey’s growth while weakening its external balance. Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Ugras Ulku trace how the 2017 boom widened the current account deficit ahead of the 2018 sudden stop, and how renewed lending in early 2019 again worsened external dynamics. Writing in February 2020, they warned that another expansion appeared underway, adding balance of payments risks with likely smaller growth benefits.
Read the workWeak investment threatened to make the emerging market growth slowdown more persistent in January 2020. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks survey investment across emerging economies and find aggregate growth in investment near zero. Turkey, Argentina and Mexico showed especially pronounced weakness, linking the broader stagnation debate to the accumulation of productive capacity.
Read the workWeak emerging market growth reflected two different problems: acute crises and a more persistent investment slowdown. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks distinguish these groups in their January 2020 assessment. They focus on Mexico and South Africa, where weak investment risked turning a recent slowdown into a structural constraint on growth.
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