From global markets to questions of development, money and economic activity.
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Renewed US tariffs and Chinese retaliation threaten to turn a trade dispute into a broader economic constraint. This February 2025 assessment examines the additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, Beijing’s response and the implications for inflation and Federal Reserve policy. The earlier trade conflict suggests that consumers and businesses absorb much of the cost.
Read the workReciprocal tariffs expose emerging markets through differences in trade barriers and dependence on US demand. Mexico, Thailand and Malaysia stand out in the revised assessment, while other economies face distinct sector risks. First published on February 20, 2025 and updated on March 3 after a data revision, the analysis connects trade exposure with uncertainty over capital flows and exchange rates.
Read the workDebt investment drove January’s $35.4 billion in emerging market portfolio inflows. The February 2025 tracker records $45 billion entering debt securities alongside $9.6 billion leaving equities. Chinese equities nevertheless attracted $2 billion, highlighting a contrast between demand for that market and withdrawals from emerging market equities overall.
Read the workThe dollar’s international role rests on economic scale, financial depth and the stability of US markets. This February 2025 assessment weighs those advantages against geopolitical pressure and efforts to develop alternatives. It also considers how tariffs and migration restrictions could reinforce the dollar through inflation and monetary policy, even as longer term challenges to its dominance persist.
Read the workA temporary tariff reprieve does not remove the economic costs of uncertainty. Following the February 2025 delay of US measures against Canada and Mexico, this analysis examines disruption in autos, agriculture and energy. Currency depreciation could complicate the trade balance response, while inflation risks create difficult choices for the Federal Reserve and its Canadian and Mexican counterparts.
Read the workThe January 2025 outlook places policy uncertainty at the center of the global economic picture. Potential US tariff and migration changes complicate inflation prospects, while a strong dollar and elevated interest rates constrain emerging markets. Commodity volatility, geopolitical tensions and longer term climate and demographic pressures add further demands on economic strategy.
Read the workDecember’s emerging market portfolio inflows reached $14.4 billion, supported by investment in debt securities. The January 2025 tracker reports $17.6 billion entering debt and $3.1 billion leaving equities, with Chinese equities accounting for $1.3 billion in withdrawals. The figures show positive aggregate flows alongside continued equity weakness.
Read the workA stronger dollar narrows the room for monetary easing outside the United States. This December 2024 assessment contrasts differing policy paths in advanced economies with the growing influence of Federal Reserve decisions on emerging markets. Persistent core inflation, possible tariff effects and fiscal and geopolitical shifts complicate the choices facing central banks.
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