From global markets to questions of development, money and economic activity.
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Emerging markets received $19.2 billion in portfolio inflows during November, despite substantial equity withdrawals. The December 2024 tracker records $30.4 billion entering debt securities and $11.1 billion leaving equities. Chinese equities saw $5.8 billion in outflows, illustrating how demand for emerging market debt coexisted with weaker appetite for stocks.
Read the workJapan's 2025 outlook balances a recovery in household demand against inflation and external risks. Wage gains support consumption, while yen depreciation complicates monetary normalization. The December 2024 assessment also examines exposure to US tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty and investment in automation, green technology and infrastructure.
Read the workThe December 2024 forecast anticipates weaker capital flows to emerging markets in 2025, with China accounting for much of the decline. Slower Federal Reserve easing and a stronger dollar would also raise financing pressures elsewhere. Regional differences and China's deteriorating direct investment balance shape a baseline exposed to substantial downside risks.
Read the workStronger productivity and prospective changes in US fiscal, labor and trade policy motivate a reassessment of the neutral interest rate. The December 2024 analysis links higher potential output with persistent inflation pressures and market expectations, arguing that the interest rate baseline should adjust to a more resilient economy.
Read the workEurope faces tariff exposure on top of rising production costs and tougher competition from China. The November 2024 assessment identifies German autos and Italian machinery as particularly vulnerable, while examining opportunities in green technology and advanced manufacturing. It separates the ECB's inflation mandate from the fiscal and trade measures needed to improve competitiveness.
Read the workHow much of the announced US tariff agenda would become policy? This November 2024 analysis contrasts markets' apparent expectation of bargaining tactics with the consequences of full implementation. Supply chain disruption, weaker global growth and possible Chinese retaliation would create uneven risks and opportunities across emerging economies.
Read the workOctober 2024 brought only $1.9 billion in net portfolio inflows to emerging markets. Debt inflows of $27.4 billion almost entirely offset $25.5 billion in equity withdrawals, including $9 billion from Chinese stocks. The aggregate masks a sharp divergence between demand for bonds and selling in equity markets.
Read the workThe immediate market response to Trump's 2024 election victory is weighed against the longer implications of his policy agenda. Tax cuts and deregulation could support activity, while fiscal expansion, tariffs and tighter immigration could add inflation and financing pressures. A stronger dollar would transmit part of that adjustment to emerging borrowers.
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