From global markets to questions of development, money and economic activity.
617 results
Geopolitical uncertainty, rising long bond yields and persistent dollar strength shaped the October 2023 meetings in Marrakesh. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun report debates over whether higher rates represented a lasting loss of fiscal space. They also highlight how the strong dollar was restraining emerging market capital flows despite growing confidence in a soft landing.
Read the workChina’s exchange rate signals in September 2023 appeared at odds with its interest in avoiding another destabilizing devaluation. Robin Brooks, Gene Ma and Jonathan Fortun argue that allowing the renminbi to trade near the weak edge of its band encouraged expectations of a currency adjustment. They interpret much of China’s weakness as a reversal of pandemic spending patterns, rather than a reason to repeat the capital flight associated with 2015.
Read the workUS inflation was looking more like a fading supply shock than a persistent excess demand problem in this August 2023 assessment. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks revisit their view that price pressures had narrowed since mid 2022 and interpret the early 2023 pickup as annual price resets. They argue that more modest underlying inflation could allow faster and larger Federal Reserve rate cuts than markets then anticipated.
Read the workDo currency devaluations actually lift exports? Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun examine large, persistent depreciations since 1990 across advanced and emerging economies. Their July 2023 analysis finds an early increase in export volumes and a shift from external deficits toward surpluses, challenging the view that dollar invoicing prevents a meaningful trade response.
Read the workExport growth strengthens after major devaluations in the historical sample examined by Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun. Their July 2023 analysis follows 27 episodes of real exchange rate declines exceeding 20% since 1990 across emerging and G10 economies. Larger depreciations are associated with stronger export gains, challenging claims that dollar invoicing prevents such benefits.
Read the workTesting whether devaluations support growth requires identifying comparable currency episodes first. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun develop an algorithm that detects 27 large real exchange rate declines across emerging and G10 economies since 1990. This June 2023 installment establishes the sample for subsequent analysis of exports and output, rather than presenting those later results.
Read the workTrade links and portfolio investment gave different signals about economic separation from China in June 2023. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun find little evidence of a material retreat in trade, while foreign direct investment excluding reinvested earnings remained resilient. Reduced nonresident portfolio flows instead pointed to investors cutting financial exposure, distinguishing risk reduction from a broader dismantling of commercial ties.
Read the workThe Silicon Valley Bank failure increasingly looked like a delayed effect of monetary tightening rather than an additional credit shock in June 2023. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun argue that lending standards had not tightened separately beyond the existing rate cycle. That interpretation supported their contemporary forecast of a global soft landing and solid emerging market capital flows as inflation eased.
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