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Fortun examines the financing and credibility required for Rodrigo Paz's gradual adjustment plans, emphasizing depleted reserves, fuel subsidies and the sequencing of external support.
View detailsFortun links declining gas production, rising electricity demand and costly fuel imports to the risk of energy shortages, describing a physical constraint beyond the election outcome.
View detailsUS inflation remains difficult to dislodge from the 3 percent range in this October 2025 assessment. Shelter and healthcare sustain services inflation, while goods prices follow divergent paths. Firm spending and elevated household inflation expectations complicate cautious Federal Reserve easing. The uneven composition of price increases makes apparent progress toward the target less convincing.
Read the workBolivia’s adjustment problem extends beyond its headline budget deficit. The October 2025 assessment places the deficit near 20 percent of GDP when state enterprises are included, alongside depleted external buffers and rigid spending. It forecasts weak growth and a break in the currency peg within a year, illustrating the difficult choices facing the incoming government.
Read the workDebt inflows kept emerging market portfolio investment positive in September despite renewed equity withdrawals. The October tracker records $26.2 billion in net inflows, combining $31.1 billion entering debt with $4.9 billion leaving equities. China outflows and valuation constraints signal vulnerabilities beneath the relative stability of aggregate debt demand.
Read the workSub Saharan Africa faces a changing financing landscape as trade tensions intensify and traditional donors reduce aid. Investment from China, India, Gulf countries and African investors opens new possibilities in minerals, renewable energy and digital infrastructure. Realizing those gains depends on governance, regional integration and credible fiscal policies that can attract lasting capital amid greater volatility.
Read the workNational employment indicators increasingly conceal differences across US states. Diverging participation, unemployment and immigration patterns change how labor market slack should be interpreted. Reduced arrivals of foreign workers place uneven pressure on labor supply and distort wage and unemployment signals. These regional differences make comparisons with earlier cycles less reliable and complicate Federal Reserve policy calibration.
Read the workFortun compares fuel-subsidy reforms abroad with Bolivia's constraints, warning that price shocks and weak political capacity make the impending adjustment socially difficult.
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