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Borrowing against securities can accelerate a market correction without predicting when one will begin. This analysis emphasizes changes in margin debt rather than its record level, tracing how collateral losses and forced deleveraging interact with tightening liquidity. A US unwind can transmit stress abroad through emerging market currencies, credit spreads and capital flows.
Read the workBonds dominated emerging market portfolio inflows in August, attracting $41.5 billion of the $44.8 billion total reported in September. Equities received just $3.3 billion. The positive headline therefore masks weaker equity momentum and tighter valuation constraints, highlighting the importance of distinguishing the composition of inflows from their aggregate size.
Read the workFortun argues that unsterilized domestic gold purchases expand liquidity and transmit fiscal strain into inflation, exchange-rate distrust and deteriorating monetary control.
View detailsFortun connects the political transition with opaque gold-backed financing and growing pension-fund exposure to public debt, arguing that these arrangements restrict future policy choices.
View detailsPrivate US hiring had slowed sharply by August 2025, with employment gains increasingly confined to healthcare and education. Immigration restrictions reduced labor supply, helping keep unemployment low even as job creation weakened. Inflation also eroded real income growth. Together, these forces left the Federal Reserve balancing a softer labor market against price pressure from tariffs.
Read the workTariff costs begin reaching import and producer prices as inventory cushions run down, while immigration restrictions complicate the reading of US employment data. Manufacturing and private construction weaken even as overall demand appears resilient. This August 2025 assessment asks whether renewed inflation could arrive before growth slows enough to give the Federal Reserve room to ease.
Read the workFortun interprets Bolivia's election as a reshuffling of established political forces and compares the fiscal, financing and institutional obstacles awaiting the next government.
View detailsEquities led July’s $55.5 billion in emerging market portfolio inflows, taking $39.2 billion compared with $16.3 billion for debt in the August release. The strong total reflects supportive conditions, but the outlook remains sensitive to policy changes and dollar movements that could rapidly reverse investor momentum.
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