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IIF Capital Flows Tracker: April 2026

Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

Emerging markets recorded $70.3 billion in portfolio outflows in March, their weakest monthly result since March 2020. Equity selling dominated, particularly in emerging Asia outside China. The outlook depends on the duration of the Iran war: a prolonged conflict could spread the pressure to debt flows, domestic policy and liquidity.

Zonebourse (Reuters, French translation) · Quoted expert FROriginal title: L'exode des actions asiatiques entraîne les plus fortes sorties de capitaux des marchés émergents depuis 2020, selon l'IIF

L'exode des actions asiatiques entraîne les plus fortes sorties de capitaux des marchés émergents depuis 2020, selon l'IIF

Fortun describes March's capital flight as concentrated in Asian equities rather than a general emerging-market funding freeze, and explains how a prolonged Iran war could worsen the outflows.

KTWB (Reuters) · Quoted expert

Asian stocks exodus fuels largest emerging market outflows since 2020, IIF data shows

Fortun describes March portfolio outflows as concentrated in Asian equities after the outbreak of war in Iran. He distinguishes this selling from a generalized funding stop and explains how a prolonged conflict could make flows harder to stabilize.

Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert ESOriginal title: Bolivia necesita más que una mejora en su calificación para generar confianza, afirman analistas

Bolivia necesita más que una mejora en su calificación para generar confianza, afirman analistas

Fortun distinguishes reduced immediate default risk from a lasting improvement in Bolivia's economic fundamentals.

Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert PTOriginal title: Do Brasil ao Chile: petróleo pressiona inflação e expõe fragilidades na América Latina

Do Brasil ao Chile: petróleo pressiona inflação e expõe fragilidades na América Latina

Fortun assesses how fuel-price policies and fiscal capacity shape the mixed regional effects of higher oil prices.

Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert ESOriginal title: Petróleo caro en Latinoamérica: sube el precio de la gasolina y crece la presión inflacionaria

Petróleo caro en Latinoamérica: sube el precio de la gasolina y crece la presión inflacionaria

Fortun assesses how fuel-price policies and fiscal capacity shape the mixed regional effects of higher oil prices.

Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert ESOriginal title: Latinoamérica corre riesgo de no capitalizar el alza del petróleo y tener mayor riesgo fiscal: IIF

Latinoamérica corre riesgo de no capitalizar el alza del petróleo y tener mayor riesgo fiscal: IIF

Fortun discusses why higher oil prices can increase fiscal pressures in Latin America when fuel subsidies absorb the gains from exports.

IIF Global Macro Views: Beyond the First Spike — Oil and the U.S. Outlook

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

How long an oil disruption lasts matters more for the U.S. outlook than the size of its first price jump. Shipping and supply pressures could turn energy inflation into weaker real consumption and tighter financial conditions. With underlying labor momentum already softening, these effects could complicate Federal Reserve rate cuts even if oil prices stop climbing.