Boursorama (Reuters, French translation) · Quoted expert Original title: ROI-Le yuan chinois est sous-évalué, mais peut-être pas autant que vous le pensez : McGeever
Fortun argues that China's financial-account dynamics make a very large, persistent yuan undervaluation harder to reconcile with the evidence, while allowing for a more moderate misalignment.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun · Leila Hamilton / Institute of International Finance
Disruption linked to Iran is spreading beyond crude prices into refined products, industrial inputs and logistics. The ceasefire shifts the near-term baseline toward gradual normalization, but emerging Asia remains especially exposed. A failed truce or slow reopening could amplify losses through production networks. Even a lasting ceasefire would leave an inflation shock and difficult policy choices rather than immediately restore pre-shock conditions.
Fortun argues that recent reforms offer limited relief while financing constraints, weak investment and foreign-currency shortages continue to restrain growth.
Jonathan Fortun · Ugras Ulku / Institute of International Finance
Russia benefits from higher prices for oil supplied outside the Strait of Hormuz, with narrower discounts lifting export earnings despite broadly stable seaborne volumes. The fiscal windfall is constrained by Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure and domestic frictions. If wider escalation depresses global demand, the gains could prove short-lived.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun · Ivan Burgara / Institute of International Finance
How long the conflict persists separates three oil-price scenarios for 2026, with average Brent prices around $85, $102 or $135. The analysis explains how declining inventory buffers can shift adjustment toward prices, with particular pressure in Asian physical markets. Longer disruption raises the risk of disproportionately large price increases, adding to inflation and complicating monetary policy through tighter financial conditions.