Fortun attributes a temporary easing of Bolivia's parallel dollar rate to a calmer political climate, while distinguishing that respite from a structural recovery.
Fortun connects the political transition with opaque gold-backed financing and growing pension-fund exposure to public debt, arguing that these arrangements restrict future policy choices.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Private US hiring had slowed sharply by August 2025, with employment gains increasingly confined to healthcare and education. Immigration restrictions reduced labor supply, helping keep unemployment low even as job creation weakened. Inflation also eroded real income growth. Together, these forces left the Federal Reserve balancing a softer labor market against price pressure from tariffs.
Fortun discusses de facto dollarization pressures as payment constraints and foreign-currency shortages weaken Bolivia's economy, stressing the need for a credible stabilization framework.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Tariff costs begin reaching import and producer prices as inventory cushions run down, while immigration restrictions complicate the reading of US employment data. Manufacturing and private construction weaken even as overall demand appears resilient. This August 2025 assessment asks whether renewed inflation could arrive before growth slows enough to give the Federal Reserve room to ease.
Fortun interprets Bolivia's election as a reshuffling of established political forces and compares the fiscal, financing and institutional obstacles awaiting the next government.
InfoMoney, citing Reuters, reports that international investors put US$55.5 billion into emerging market stocks and bonds in July, per IIF data. Jonathan Fortun, senior economist at the IIF, said flows into high yielding currencies have been persistent, especially in Brazil, Mexico and South Africa, where high real rates and steadier exchange rates delivered strong total returns. He added that a weaker dollar also boosted the carry trade.