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Stronger productivity and prospective changes in US fiscal, labor and trade policy motivate a reassessment of the neutral interest rate. The December 2024 analysis links higher potential output with persistent inflation pressures and market expectations, arguing that the interest rate baseline should adjust to a more resilient economy.
Read the workEurope faces tariff exposure on top of rising production costs and tougher competition from China. The November 2024 assessment identifies German autos and Italian machinery as particularly vulnerable, while examining opportunities in green technology and advanced manufacturing. It separates the ECB's inflation mandate from the fiscal and trade measures needed to improve competitiveness.
Read the workHow much of the announced US tariff agenda would become policy? This November 2024 analysis contrasts markets' apparent expectation of bargaining tactics with the consequences of full implementation. Supply chain disruption, weaker global growth and possible Chinese retaliation would create uneven risks and opportunities across emerging economies.
Read the workFortun examines the trade costs of Bolivia's landlocked geography alongside domestic logistical, institutional and economic constraints.
View detailsInfoMoney, citing Reuters, reports that foreign investors pulled the most from emerging market equities in October since early 2020, though bond inflows more than offset it, per IIF data. Jonathan Fortun said investor confidence in China stays low despite targeted easing, and that dollar strength worries heightened risk aversion in equities. He added that yield differentials and rate paths could increasingly favor emerging market debt over stocks as global risk aversion rises.
View detailsCNN Brasil published this Portuguese article on 2024-11-15. It mentions Jonathan Fortun in an IIF economics context. Read the original source for the complete reporting.
View detailsOctober 2024 brought only $1.9 billion in net portfolio inflows to emerging markets. Debt inflows of $27.4 billion almost entirely offset $25.5 billion in equity withdrawals, including $9 billion from Chinese stocks. The aggregate masks a sharp divergence between demand for bonds and selling in equity markets.
Read the workPortuguese coverage quotes Fortun on the stronger dollar and changing investor allocations between emerging-market debt and equities.
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