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Fortun explains how weak confidence in China and a stronger dollar increase aversion to emerging-market equities while making debt comparatively more attractive.
View detailsFortun links Latin America's productivity gaps to informality, human capital, technology adoption and structural barriers.
View detailsThe immediate market response to Trump's 2024 election victory is weighed against the longer implications of his policy agenda. Tax cuts and deregulation could support activity, while fiscal expansion, tariffs and tighter immigration could add inflation and financing pressures. A stronger dollar would transmit part of that adjustment to emerging borrowers.
Read the workFortun joins Clay Lowery to discuss Japanese elections, Bank of Japan measures and the implications of recent economic and political developments.
View detailsA conversation with Clay Lowery about Japan's elections, monetary policy and international implications.
View detailsDiscussions at the 2024 Annual Meetings highlighted a resilient expansion alongside unresolved financial and geopolitical risks. Federal Reserve and ECB easing promised support for liquidity, but fiscal choices and political developments could limit further cuts. China's subdued growth, volatile capital flows and oil prices complicated the outlook for emerging economies.
Read the workThe October 2024 global outlook turns on the interaction of policy shifts, geopolitical shocks and unexpected economic data. US fiscal deficits and possible oil price increases threaten disinflation, while China's weak recovery affects trade and commodities. Emerging economies remain resilient, but domestic inflation and divergent policy paths leave the balance of growth risks unsettled.
Read the workEmerging markets received $56.6 billion in portfolio inflows in September 2024, split broadly evenly between equities and debt. Chinese stocks attracted $24.1 billion, accounting for most of the $27.9 billion equity total. The figures distinguish a strong aggregate month from the geographic concentration of its equity component.
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