Perspectives connected to the research.
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Fortun highlights the near halt in nonresident investment flows to China as investors reassess geopolitical risk, despite a broader rebound in emerging-market inflows.
View detailsThe article cites Fortun and Sergi Lanau's IIF research on the deficit implications of Lula's proposed spending package.
View detailsThe article cites Fortun and Sergi Lanau's IIF research on the deficit implications of Lula's proposed spending package.
View detailsFortun and Robin Brooks contribute to an IIF forecast for weak global growth in 2023, with the outlook particularly sensitive to the war in Ukraine.
View detailsBrazil’s incoming Lula administration faced a gap between favorable 2022 revenues and spending cuts that the authors considered unrealistic for 2023. Sergi Lanau, Martín Castellano and Jonathan Fortun assess room to protect Bolsa Familia while maintaining fiscal credibility. Their November 2022 scenarios distinguish a manageable targeted expansion from larger packages that could unsettle markets.
Read the workFortun examines the investment-strategy shifts behind continued Chinese outflows despite a broader recovery in emerging-market inflows.
View detailsFortun comments on an improvement in emerging-market portfolio flows alongside a reassessment of exposure to China.
View detailsMarket stress in 2022 challenged the idea that advanced economies had unlimited fiscal room. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle connect UK bond turmoil, yen depreciation under Japan’s yield cap and Italy’s reliance on the ECB to constraints on government financing. Their November 2022 assessment argues that low interest rates should not be mistaken for unlimited capacity to borrow.
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