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Foreign investment in emerging-market portfolios fell sharply in 2022. The article cites Fortun's IIF report on interest rates, the dollar and uneven regional flows.
View detailsThe article cites Fortun's IIF report on the sharp decline in 2022 emerging-market investment and remaining risks despite hopes of a Fed policy shift.
View detailsAn assessment of forecasting mistakes in 2022 acknowledges the failure to warn ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The authors also revisit an overly pessimistic European recession forecast and the unexpectedly broad frontier market selloff. The retrospective treats these misses as lessons for economic analysis and risk assessment rather than presenting only successful calls.
Read the workNarrowing inflation across US consumer price components had signaled disinflation before the turn in core inflation, according to this December 2022 analysis by Jonathan Pingle, Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks. They identified early signs of a similar pattern in the euro area as their monthly inflation breadth index fell and price increases slowed in components sensitive to energy costs. The authors anticipated a turn in euro area inflation and argued for a less restrictive ECB stance.
Read the workCongressional reductions to Lula’s proposed spending package did not resolve Brazil’s fiscal uncertainty heading into 2023. The December 2022 assessment saw limited scope for a large near term decline in risk premia and called for substantial adjustment to stabilize debt. It contrasted reversing tax cuts and retaining the spending cap with a major relaxation of fiscal rules that it considered unsustainable.
Read the workPortfolio investment into emerging markets reached $37.4 billion in November 2022, led by $23.0 billion in equity inflows compared with $14.4 billion in debt. Chinese equities attracted $8.5 billion. The December release separates these asset allocations to show where the month’s capital entered emerging markets.
Read the workReuters reports a rebound in emerging market portfolio inflows in November 2022, even as investors continued withdrawing from Chinese debt. Jonathan Fortun links the weakness in foreign investment into China to greater concern about geopolitical risk. The contrast shows why a broad recovery in flows need not imply renewed confidence across every market.
View detailsFortun discusses how interest costs and social spending affect Mexico's fiscal outlook in a regional IIF assessment.
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