Perspectives connected to the research.
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Fortun's IIF capital-flow analysis documents March outflows from Chinese stocks and bonds alongside inflows to Latin America, raising the possibility of a shift in investor allocations.
View detailsRussia’s oil export earnings remained near historical highs in March 2022 despite sanctions and discounted crude. This analysis separates the effect of higher global oil prices from the transport constraints and price discount facing Russian producers. Together with falling domestic demand, those earnings were expected to sustain a large external surplus. Writing on March 31, Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Jonathan Pingle and Elina Ribakova projected a 2022 current account surplus of $200 billion to $240 billion, compared with $120 billion in 2021. These figures describe the forecast at publication, not the eventual outcome.
Read the workAn IIF analysis coauthored by Fortun identifies unusual capital outflows from China after Russia's invasion of Ukraine while cautioning that it is too early to call the shift structural.
View detailsFinancial markets in March 2022 appeared to assume a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine despite a wide range of possible outcomes. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine the risk of a prolonged conflict. Their scenario analysis links that outcome to higher expected oil prices, more monetary tightening and weaker global equities.
Read the workRussia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions changed emerging market vulnerabilities unevenly. The March 2022 assessment distinguishes large commodity exporters, positioned to benefit from rising prices, from commodity importers and regional trading partners of Russia and Ukraine, whose exposure increased. It updates the IIF vulnerability map around those contrasting channels.
Read the workThe report considers Russia's recession and the differing effects of the Ukraine war on emerging markets, distinguishing commodity exporters from economies exposed through trade and imports.
Read the workEmerging markets received $17.6 billion in portfolio inflows during February 2022. Equities attracted $10.1 billion, exceeding the $7.5 billion allocated to debt, while Chinese equities received $3.2 billion. Published in March, the tracker documents the previous month’s allocation across asset classes.
Read the workEmerging economies entered the Ukraine war with stronger external buffers than in several earlier global shocks. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau compare current accounts, export performance and reserves against financing needs. Their March 2022 assessment anticipates wider deficits for commodity importers such as India, while distinguishing those pressures from the vulnerabilities preceding the 2013 taper tantrum.
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