Perspectives connected to the research.
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Stronger exports and relatively stable debt repayments kept emerging market external financing needs contained in July 2021. Jonathan Fortun and Sergi Lanau explain how exports recovering faster than imports supported current account balances. Higher US bond yields remained a vulnerability, but their assessment considered the potential shock more manageable than in 2013.
Read the workFortun argues that Latin American central banks' ability to anchor inflation expectations and preserve credibility will shape the region's macroeconomic health.
View detailsEmerging markets received $28.1 billion in portfolio inflows in June 2021, according to Jonathan Fortun’s July tracker. Debt attracted $18.9 billion, exceeding the $9.2 billion entering equities. Chinese equities accounted for $5.2 billion of those equity inflows. The breakdown distinguishes the stronger contribution from debt markets from the concentration of equity investment in China.
Read the workFortun explains how new debt issuance and investment in China supported a rebound in emerging-market portfolio inflows despite a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
View detailsThe article discusses an IIF report coauthored by Fortun on the Brazilian real's valuation after its pandemic-era depreciation.
View detailsWhy were long term US yields so low in June 2021? Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle identified temporary forces: subdued labor market releases and reduced Treasury issuance as the government drew down its cash balance. After Federal Reserve purchases, net issuance turned negative in the second quarter. They expected these supports for bond prices to fade, strengthening the case for higher yields in the second half of 2021.
Read the workRising food and energy prices posed particular inflation risks for emerging markets because these goods weigh heavily in household consumption. Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Elina Ribakova find only moderate headline inflation increases by June 2021 despite higher import costs. They connect relatively stable expectations with improving central bank credibility, an assessment specific to that stage of the recovery.
Read the workManufacturing surveys in June 2021 showed supply disruptions spreading across countries as longer delivery times and rising input costs prompted firms to raise prices. The analysis saw growing upside risk to its forecast of 2.6% annual core PCE inflation in the fourth quarter, already above the Federal Reserve’s March projection of 2.2%. These figures describe the outlook at publication, not realized inflation.
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