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Jonathan Fortun discusses central-bank credibility, inflation expectations and monetary policy in emerging markets as inflation rises.
View detailsCoverage quotes Fortun on the uneven recovery of emerging-market capital flows and the role of policy credibility.
View detailsSupply bottlenecks had reached producer prices, but their transmission to consumer inflation was still unfolding in May 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle expected further increases in core CPI and PCE as delayed effects emerged. They argued at the time that the Federal Reserve should accommodate this inflation bump despite a larger and more persistent supply shock.
Read the workFortun explains how emerging-market real yields attracted foreign investors in April, when Chinese equities took most equity inflows and other emerging-market bonds drew substantial investment.
View detailsSevere manufacturing delays raised the question of whether supply disruptions were reaching consumer prices as economies reopened. The April 2021 comparison found evidence of firms passing costs into higher prices only in the United States. Faster vaccination and reopening were offered as a possible explanation for stronger pricing power there, rather than as an established global pattern.
Read the workSevere delivery delays and rising manufacturing input costs challenged expectations of a quick supply chain normalization in April 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle compare the disruption with earlier crisis episodes. Although they expected reopening eventually to ease bottlenecks, their analysis warns that persistence could intensify upward pressure on US yields as economic data recovered.
Read the workStrong US economic releases during the 2021 reopening reflected the reversal of the shutdown, with unusually volatile data surprises. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun expected this turbulence to persist into the summer and put upward pressure on long term US bond yields. Their April assessment identified Turkey as the emerging market most affected, with spillovers also reaching Brazil and Colombia.
Read the workFortun contrasts weaker emerging-market equity flows with China's support for overall inflows, in an analysis of Beijing's financial-opening and stability challenges.
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