Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Martín Castellano · Ugras Ulku / Institute of International Finance
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Brazil’s expanding trade surplus and Turkey’s repeated credit booms point to different currency valuation pressures. This April 2023 assessment defends the Brazilian real estimate despite persistent market weakness and explains how Turkish credit expansion had weakened the lira’s fair value through larger external deficits. A change in Turkey’s growth model was presented as a possibility around the forthcoming election.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Russia’s exceptional external surplus was fading by early 2023 after an estimated $215 billion energy windfall since mid 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle attribute part of the reversal to the EU oil embargo and G7 price cap. Their March assessment also warns that an expanding tanker fleet outside the cap could weaken its reach.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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US inflation signals pointed in conflicting directions in March 2023. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle find continued pressure in underlying services inflation alongside a retreat in the breadth of price increases. Their assessment rejects both a clear slowdown and an uncontrolled acceleration, supporting a cautious 25 basis point rate increase at the following Federal Reserve meeting.
Fortun warns that restrictive Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy could slow emerging-market inflows and increase demand for dollar hedges.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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A century of US inflation reveals lower volatility without a clear downward trend in its level. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine major inflation surges associated with oil shocks, wars and fiscal expansions. Their February 2023 review notes that earlier spikes generally faded within a few years, sometimes without Federal Reserve rate increases.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Separating the effects of the G7 oil price cap from the EU embargo was essential to judging sanctions in February 2023. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue that the embargo had already widened the discount on Russian crude, leaving the cap nonbinding. They examine the representativeness of tanker traffic data and the limits of conclusions available at that early stage.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Falling natural gas prices did not mean Europe’s energy shock had ended. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle point to prices still above historical norms and weaker production in industries that use large amounts of gas. Their January 2023 analysis links lower energy demand to economic damage, while emphasizing the continuing loss of purchasing power through the terms of trade.