Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Benjamin Hilgenstock · Jonathan Pingle · Elina Ribakova / Institute of International Finance
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Russia’s oil export earnings remained near historical highs in March 2022 despite sanctions and discounted crude. This analysis separates the effect of higher global oil prices from the transport constraints and price discount facing Russian producers. Together with falling domestic demand, those earnings were expected to sustain a large external surplus. Writing on March 31, Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Jonathan Pingle and Elina Ribakova projected a 2022 current account surplus of $200 billion to $240 billion, compared with $120 billion in 2021. These figures describe the forecast at publication, not the eventual outcome.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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Financial markets in March 2022 appeared to assume a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine despite a wide range of possible outcomes. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine the risk of a prolonged conflict. Their scenario analysis links that outcome to higher expected oil prices, more monetary tightening and weaker global equities.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Benjamin Hilgenstock · Elina Ribakova / Institute of International Finance
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The report considers Russia's recession and the differing effects of the Ukraine war on emerging markets, distinguishing commodity exporters from economies exposed through trade and imports.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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New inflation breadth indices measure the weight of consumer basket components experiencing high inflation across major G10 economies. The February 2022 results show that US price pressures had spread well beyond isolated energy or supply bottlenecks. Inflation was also broadening in the euro area despite large output gaps, with Germany identified as an important source of overheating.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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The recovery from COVID differed sharply across economies in January 2022. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle attributed the comparatively complete US rebound largely to aggressive fiscal stimulus, with consumption and investment above their levels at the end of 2019. Their comparison of advanced and emerging economies warned that the euro area appeared headed for a major investment slump, comparable to weaknesses in South Africa and Colombia.
The article cites Fortun's assessment of how currency depreciation, anticipated Federal Reserve tightening and pandemic uncertainty affected November portfolio flows.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
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High public debt and very low bond yields coexisted in Japan under sustained central bank support. The December 2021 comparison asks whether the euro area was moving toward a similar configuration, as the European Central Bank’s role expanded and foreign government bond holdings declined. It presents an emerging parallel between the two monetary systems, rather than a completed convergence.