Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Manufacturing surveys in June 2021 showed supply disruptions spreading across countries as longer delivery times and rising input costs prompted firms to raise prices. The analysis saw growing upside risk to its forecast of 2.6% annual core PCE inflation in the fourth quarter, already above the Federal Reserve’s March projection of 2.2%. These figures describe the outlook at publication, not realized inflation.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Supply bottlenecks had reached producer prices, but their transmission to consumer inflation was still unfolding in May 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle expected further increases in core CPI and PCE as delayed effects emerged. They argued at the time that the Federal Reserve should accommodate this inflation bump despite a larger and more persistent supply shock.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Severe manufacturing delays raised the question of whether supply disruptions were reaching consumer prices as economies reopened. The April 2021 comparison found evidence of firms passing costs into higher prices only in the United States. Faster vaccination and reopening were offered as a possible explanation for stronger pricing power there, rather than as an established global pattern.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Jonathan Pingle / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Severe delivery delays and rising manufacturing input costs challenged expectations of a quick supply chain normalization in April 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle compare the disruption with earlier crisis episodes. Although they expected reopening eventually to ease bottlenecks, their analysis warns that persistence could intensify upward pressure on US yields as economic data recovered.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Strong US economic releases during the 2021 reopening reflected the reversal of the shutdown, with unusually volatile data surprises. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun expected this turbulence to persist into the summer and put upward pressure on long term US bond yields. Their April assessment identified Turkey as the emerging market most affected, with spillovers also reaching Brazil and Colombia.
Fortun contrasts weaker emerging-market equity flows with China's support for overall inflows, in an analysis of Beijing's financial-opening and stability challenges.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Market stress raised questions about contagion from Turkey to other emerging economies in April 2021. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun compare the pressure with the 2013 taper tantrum and argue that stronger starting conditions limited wider spillovers. Their contemporary assessment also retained the lira fair value estimate, anticipating that tighter financial conditions would narrow Turkey’s external deficit.