Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Ugras Ulku / Institute of International Finance
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Turkey’s currency response to a sudden stop depends on how domestic activity and credit adjust. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Ugras Ulku contrast the recession and external adjustment of 2018 with the credit expansion that limited recovery in the lira after the 2019 shock. Writing in March 2021, they expected the new episode to resemble 2018 and retained a fair value estimate of 7.50 lira per dollar.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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Rising US yields were already triggering substantial emerging market outflows in March 2021. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun nevertheless distinguish that episode from the 2013 taper tantrum: previous inflows had been smaller, and current accounts and real exchange rates were better positioned. Those initial conditions supported their view that the disruption would remain a setback rather than a systemic collapse.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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The IIF’s March 2021 valuation update found greater dollar overvaluation even after its real effective depreciation. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun linked the result to a widening US current account deficit amid fiscal stimulus and rapid recovery. Their model identified substantial undervaluation in China’s renminbi, Brazil’s real and Russia’s ruble, while Argentina and South Africa showed overvaluation. These are the study’s estimates for 2021, not current currency assessments.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun · Ugras Ulku / Institute of International Finance
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Slowing credit offered Turkey a route away from consumption driven external imbalances in early 2021. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Ugras Ulku connect the previous year’s credit expansion with reserve losses and a wider current account deficit. They argue that preventing excessive lira appreciation would help redirect the economy toward exports and investment.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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The authors use inflation evidence to assess economic slack in Italy and Spain, comparing their estimates with IMF output gaps and emphasizing measurement uncertainty.
Robin Brooks · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
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The authors compare US and euro-area output-gap estimates with core inflation using Phillips curves, highlighting the uncertainty involved in measuring economic slack.