Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Retail job losses in September 2019 reflected the declining market share of physical stores without eliminating their efficiency gap with online commerce. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks distinguished that sectoral adjustment from stronger overall US hiring, then running near 150,000 jobs per month against roughly 80,000 needed to keep unemployment stable. They saw scope for unemployment to fall further, rather than treating retail contraction as evidence of general labor market weakness.
Gregory Basile · Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts did not weaken the dollar against other major currencies in July 2019. Gregory Basile, Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks identify simultaneous easing signals from other central banks and a reduced exchange rate response to interest differentials. Both mechanisms limited the currency impact of a more accommodative Fed outlook.
Gregory Basile · Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
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Low underlying inflation challenges estimates that treat much of the euro area periphery’s unemployment as structural. Gregory Basile, Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks use the Phillips curve to compare unemployment gaps with inflation outcomes. Their June 2019 analysis argues that conventional measures understate remaining economic slack and overstate structural unemployment in those economies.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks · Tariq Khan / Institute of International Finance
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Why did a more accommodative Federal Reserve fail to lift many emerging market currencies in early 2019? Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Tariq Khan suggest that accumulated investor positions after years of easy monetary policy limited the response to further easing. Excluding China, the recovery in flows appeared weak, with meaningful first quarter inflows concentrated in Indonesia and Mexico.
Fortun and Tariq Khan's IIF analysis connects renewed emerging-market demand to a more accommodative Federal Reserve, easing trade tensions and improved growth sentiment.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks · Tariq Khan / Institute of International Finance
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Updated currency valuations incorporate the large exchange rate, current account and activity changes surrounding the 2018 emerging market selloff. In the February 2019 estimates, the Argentine peso and Turkish lira remained only mildly expensive, while India, Indonesia and South Africa showed greater overvaluation. Emerging Asia, including China, remained substantially undervalued under the framework.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks · Tariq Khan / Institute of International Finance
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The Federal Reserve’s early 2019 shift away from tightening could revive capital inflows to emerging markets even though investors had already priced in a pause. High frequency flow data were showing a sharp increase as the search for yield resumed. The analysis identifies South Africa as the most crowded positioning case, with Brazil and Russia the least heavily positioned among the markets assessed.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks · Tariq Khan / Institute of International Finance
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After the 2018 emerging market selloff, improving sentiment raised a question: how much exposure had investors actually shed? Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Tariq Khan combine capital flow data with changes in asset valuations to measure positioning. Their framework distinguishes money moving across borders from changes in the value of existing holdings, which historically accounted for most shifts in positioning.