Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
A large euro area current account surplus need not imply an undervalued currency. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks argue that persistent economic slack can suppress imports and inflate the headline external balance. Their November 2018 calculation turns the surplus into a deficit after adjusting for the economic cycle, pointing to possible euro overvaluation rather than an automatic case for appreciation.
Writing in April 2017, Jonathan Fortun explains how reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could tighten financial conditions alongside interest rate increases. The assessment anticipated asset runoff later that year and removed one rate increase from its 2018 forecast to account for that additional restraint. It also identified changes in the Fed’s Board as a risk to consistent policy communication.
Jonathan Fortun · Robin Brooks / Institute of International Finance
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Weak manufacturing had not yet spread substantially to services in September 2019, even in Germany, where the industrial recession was especially severe. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks assess this divergence alongside indicators suggesting that manufacturing was approaching a bottom. Their relatively constructive global outlook remains conditional on services retaining their resilience.