世界の金融市場から、開発、通貨、経済活動をめぐる問いへ。
主な各カテゴリーの最近の掲載分から、日本語の概要を追加しています。原典のタイトルは原語のまま掲載し、未翻訳の概要は英語で表示します。
617 件
英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Weakness in the euro area extended beyond Germany at the end of 2023. Deteriorating French indicators strengthened the case that market expectations for 2024 growth were too optimistic. The analysis examines the risk of a renewed recession, drawing parallels with the uneven European recovery after the global financial crisis.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Europe's energy shock created a different growth and inflation outlook from that of the United States. The December 2023 assessment argues that markets had not adequately reflected this divergence in expectations for 2024. It compares the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine with earlier episodes that interrupted the euro area's recovery.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Emerging markets attracted $43.4 billion in portfolio investment during November 2023. Jonathan Fortun separates $28.6 billion of debt inflows from $14.8 billion in equities. Chinese stocks received $0.6 billion, indicating that most equity inflows in this December tracker went to other emerging markets.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Supply chain normalization explained most of the US disinflation observed in 2023, according to Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun. Their updated models suggested that this downward pressure on inflation still had further to run. Writing in December 2023, they expected its strongest US effect in early 2024 and a later peak in the euro area.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Rising exports to Central Asia accompanied falling direct shipments to Russia after export controls were imposed. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun document these changing trade routes and the enforcement challenges of decentralized goods trade. Their November 2023 analysis explicitly distinguishes unusual trading patterns from evidence of actual export control violations.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Favorable external conditions underpinned a November 2023 forecast of 2.5% Latin American growth in 2024 excluding Argentina. Martín Castellano, María Paola Figueroa and Jonathan Fortun identified commodity activity, Mexico’s proximity to US production and further monetary easing as potential supports. They expected a prolonged Argentine recession with limited regional spillovers, while emphasizing the advantage for countries that reduced fiscal risk and political uncertainty.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Emerging markets recorded a net portfolio outflow of $3.4 billion in October 2023 as equity withdrawals outweighed debt investment. Jonathan Fortun reported $17.2 billion leaving equities alongside $13.8 billion entering debt. Chinese equities alone lost $7.5 billion, illustrating the contrast between demand for emerging market bonds and pressure on stock allocations.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
US resilience after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and unexpectedly rapid disinflation shaped this November 2023 outlook. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun expected higher yields to weaken housing temporarily, but projected 2% growth in 2024, above consensus. They anticipated core PCE inflation falling to 2.5% by the end of 2024 as supply disruptions faded, and viewed market pricing of roughly three Federal Reserve rate cuts as reasonable. These were forecasts made at publication.
論文を読む