Quem financia o mundo? Como Alemanha, Japão e China viraram os maiores credores globais
Fortun explains how accumulated savings surpluses make Germany, Japan and China major sources of international financing.
View detailsHow money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Fortun explains how accumulated savings surpluses make Germany, Japan and China major sources of international financing.
View detailsFortun explains how accumulated savings surpluses make Germany, Japan and China major sources of international financing.
View detailsFortun distinguishes renewed investor appetite from durable stabilization, examining domestic debt, scarce liquid reserves and the risks of borrowing abroad before restoring fiscal credibility.
View detailsFortun places Bolivia's 2025 inflation surge in historical context and describes its persistence.
View detailsFortun estimates the capital and operational work needed to restore Venezuelan oil production.
View detailsFortun explains why Venezuela's reduced production base limited the immediate global oil-price impact of military action.
View detailsAccepted for presentation at the LSE International Inequalities Institute and UNU-WIDER workshop on 6 November 2026. Using BOLMOD, the Bolivian module of SOUTHMOD, this paper studies how Bolivia’s fuel subsidy reform and exchange rate unification affect households. It compares the enacted compensation package with alternatives deliverable through existing registries, showing why administrative visibility matters for who receives relief.
Read the workFortun argues that Bolivia's fuel-subsidy reform needs a broader fiscal anchor and that implementing it during December's seasonal demand peak intensifies inflation and uncertainty.
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