Jonathan Fortun

Global macroeconomics

How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.

The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.

Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.

Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.

Research and public conversation

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February 5, 2026IIF

IIF Global Macro Views: The United States and the Shape of Global Growth in 2026

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

Global growth in 2026 increasingly depends on a US expansion powered by productivity and investment in artificial intelligence. Yet stronger output does not translate proportionately into jobs. Capital intensity, semiconductor concentration and policy frictions reshape the expansion, while geopolitical risks operate through confidence and asset pricing. The result is growth with a weaker employment footprint.

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January 29, 2026IIF

Global Macro Views: EM Credit After the Stress Test

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

Improved repayment capacity helps explain why emerging market sovereign spreads have narrowed even with elevated US yields. Stronger balance sheets and favorable rating changes point to declining credit risk rather than a rally driven solely by easier global rates. As returns from carry mature, the analysis anticipates a possible rotation of inflows toward issuance in foreign currencies.

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