How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Fortun interprets Bolivia's election as a reshuffling of established political forces and compares the fiscal, financing and institutional obstacles awaiting the next government.
View detailsFortun explains the appeal of higher-yielding emerging-market currencies as July portfolio inflows reached their second-largest monthly total in four years.
View detailsFortun discusses how high local interest rates, steadier exchange rates and a weaker dollar supported emerging-market debt demand. He also describes the contribution of passive fund allocations as Reuters reports strong July portfolio inflows.
View detailsFortun argues that Bolivia's fiscal adjustment faces severe political and employment constraints, challenging bond-market optimism about a straightforward post-election turnaround.
View detailsTariffs create different inflation problems across economies. Higher goods costs affect the United States and its trading partners, while slower growth and stronger currencies ease pressures elsewhere. Emerging market central banks respond unevenly, with Brazil standing out for tightening through June 2025. The Federal Reserve faces its own conflict between tariff inflation and weakening employment.
Read the workEmerging market inflows increasingly reward domestic resilience rather than broad exposure to global markets. The July 2025 assessment contrasts reform momentum and disinflation with fiscal weakness, tariff exposure and currency risk. Strong local bond returns coexist with growing country differentiation, making the durability of policy frameworks central to understanding where capital goes.
Read the workJonathan Fortun discusses investor interest in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia's growing role as an issuer of dollar-denominated debt.
View detailsThe article cites Fortun's assessment of election expectations and other short-term drivers behind lower Bolivian risk premiums.
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