Jonathan Fortun

Global macroeconomics

How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.

The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.

Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.

Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.

Research and public conversation

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July 10, 2025IIF

Global Macro Views: From Beta to Resilience: The Rise of a New Alpha in Global Markets

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

Familiar relationships between US yields, the dollar and global assets are becoming less dependable. Emerging market currencies and sovereign spreads show signs of moving independently of long US rates, while gold reflects demand for protection against institutional and geopolitical uncertainty. Stronger local bond performance points toward investors placing greater value on resilience.

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June 12, 2025IIF

Global Macro Views: A Slower World, A Sharper Lens

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

The June 2025 outlook projects global growth slowing to 2.7 percent from 3.1 percent in 2024. A sharper US slowdown, muted activity in Europe and Japan, and China’s reliance on policy support leave the recovery uneven. Emerging economies remain broadly resilient, but investment decisions become more sensitive to differences in domestic policy.

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