Global macroeconomics

Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert ESOriginal title: Cómo funciona el “dólar tarjeta” en Bolivia ante cambios de Asfi y escasez de divisas

Cómo funciona el “dólar tarjeta” en Bolivia ante cambios de Asfi y escasez de divisas

Fortun explains the pricing mechanism for Bolivia's card-dollar rate and its role in managing foreign-currency scarcity.

Global Macro Views: Full Metal Budget: Europe’s Military Spending Blitz

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

Europe’s defense spending ambitions create different fiscal challenges across its largest economies. Germany expands military and infrastructure investment, while France and Italy face heavier debt constraints. Spain has more flexibility but competing social priorities. The March 2025 analysis examines how additional borrowing could raise financing costs and test fiscal stability.

Bolivia’s Macroeconomic Freefall, Part III: Fiscal Space and the Fury Ahead

Fortun argues that losses at state enterprises deepen Bolivia’s fiscal financing gap, while declining gas exports, scarce reserves and informality limit its adjustment options. He contrasts these constraints with Argentina’s and examines the political obstacles to fiscal reform.

Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert ESOriginal title: El oro brilla a US$3.000 y también ilumina a sus productores en América Latina

El oro brilla a US$3.000 y también ilumina a sus productores en América Latina

Fortun explains how informality, smuggling and regulatory uncertainty limit Bolivia's gains from higher gold prices.

Global Macro Views: Blue, White, and in the Red: America’s Fiscal Crossroads

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

America’s fiscal challenge extends beyond annual budget negotiations. Rising entitlement costs and interest payments put debt on an increasingly difficult path. The March 2025 analysis estimates that stabilizing the debt ratio requires tax increases or spending reductions exceeding 2.5 percent of GDP. Balancing the budget would demand a substantially larger adjustment.

Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert ESOriginal title: ¿Cómo están las reservas de litio y qué peso tiene Latam? Argentina y Brasil ganan terreno

¿Cómo están las reservas de litio y qué peso tiene Latam? Argentina y Brasil ganan terreno

Fortun discusses the regulatory, infrastructure and investment barriers limiting Bolivia's lithium development.

Global Macro Views: From Trade War to Tariff Trap: The U.S.-China Economic Clash

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

Renewed US tariffs and Chinese retaliation threaten to turn a trade dispute into a broader economic constraint. This February 2025 assessment examines the additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, Beijing’s response and the implications for inflation and Federal Reserve policy. The earlier trade conflict suggests that consumers and businesses absorb much of the cost.

Global Macro Views: Trade Wars Reloaded: EMs Caught in the Reciprocity Spiral

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

Reciprocal tariffs expose emerging markets through differences in trade barriers and dependence on US demand. Mexico, Thailand and Malaysia stand out in the revised assessment, while other economies face distinct sector risks. First published on February 20, 2025 and updated on March 3 after a data revision, the analysis connects trade exposure with uncertainty over capital flows and exchange rates.