How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Financial conditions, business surveys and the relationship between employment and inflation offered mixed signals about the timing of Federal Reserve easing in February 2024. While much of the evidence suggested waiting until at least June, the analysis argued that normalizing inflation justified a more accommodative stance by May. These were competing assessments at that historical date.
Read the workCooling inflation complicated the timing of Japan's exit from yield curve control in early 2024. Wage negotiations were central to establishing a firmer basis for policy normalization. The February assessment retained an expectation of an exit by July, while recognizing that Governor Ueda's communication could alter the timetable.
Read the workThe recovery after COVID raised the possibility of escaping the weak growth and low inflation that followed the global financial crisis. By January 2024, renewed shortfalls relative to earlier growth paths suggested otherwise, particularly in China and Europe. The analysis links those output gaps to the possibility of returning to a subdued inflation environment.
Read the workReal effective exchange rates can reveal conspicuous currency misalignments even before applying a full current account model. The January 2024 review uses this perspective to examine emerging market valuations and highlights Egypt, Pakistan and Ukraine as potential cases of overvaluation. It presents a diagnostic assessment rather than a prediction of when an adjustment would occur.
Read the workWeakness in the euro area extended beyond Germany at the end of 2023. Deteriorating French indicators strengthened the case that market expectations for 2024 growth were too optimistic. The analysis examines the risk of a renewed recession, drawing parallels with the uneven European recovery after the global financial crisis.
Read the workEurope's energy shock created a different growth and inflation outlook from that of the United States. The December 2023 assessment argues that markets had not adequately reflected this divergence in expectations for 2024. It compares the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine with earlier episodes that interrupted the euro area's recovery.
Read the workFortun links stronger local-currency debt returns and inflows outside China to easing inflation concerns and expectations of lower interest rates.
View detailsFortun links stronger local-currency debt returns and inflows outside China to easing inflation concerns and expectations of lower interest rates.
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