How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Fortun contrasts Bolivia's exchange-rate announcements and IMF staff agreement with limited usable reserves, arguing that simultaneous policy headlines do not by themselves resolve the external constraint.
View detailsBloomberg Línea reports on the staff level agreement between Bolivia and the IMF for US$1,900 million. Jonathan Fortun of the IIF warned that the main challenge will be sustaining fiscal discipline and reforms once disbursements begin. He said the package could exceed US$5,000 million over the program, noted the deal is tougher than the government's announcement suggests, and argued that US$1,900 million would be small if early reviews fail.
View detailsFortun links Latin American bank profitability to credit penetration, concentration, switching costs and local deposit bases.
View detailsAI is reshaping international trade and capital allocation before its productivity gains are established, the authors argue. Their analysis distinguishes supplying chips and equipment from owning platforms and intellectual property that earn recurring income. Emerging economies may gain productivity through adoption while still paying more for imported hardware and digital services. Building exportable digital capacity could instead attract lasting investment and improve external balances.
Read the workStatistical revisions could change the apparent path of US inflation, growth and productivity. A change in measuring financial services could lower core PCE inflation, while broader revisions expose difficulties in tracking a technology-intensive service economy. These measurement choices could influence Federal Reserve judgments about sustainable growth and interest rates, with consequences for Treasury yields, the dollar and emerging-market financing.
Read the workReuters reports that emerging markets saw $46.1 billion in net foreign equity outflows in June, led by South Korea and Taiwan, even as bonds drew $28.3 billion. Jonathan Fortun, IIF chief economist, wrote in the monthly report that investors remain willing to lend to emerging markets but are less willing to add broad equity risk. He attributed the equity cuts to higher global discount rates, China uncertainty, weaker earnings confidence and tech and energy positioning.
View detailsFortun explains the divergence between continued lending to emerging markets and reduced equity exposure, as selling in South Korea and Taiwan drives June's outflows.
View detailsFortun assesses Bolivia's new market-referenced official exchange rate and bank selling limits, asking whether the framework can clear the currency market or preserve rationing and parallel pricing.
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