How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
504 results
Do currency devaluations actually lift exports? Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun examine large, persistent depreciations since 1990 across advanced and emerging economies. Their July 2023 analysis finds an early increase in export volumes and a shift from external deficits toward surpluses, challenging the view that dollar invoicing prevents a meaningful trade response.
Read the workExport growth strengthens after major devaluations in the historical sample examined by Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun. Their July 2023 analysis follows 27 episodes of real exchange rate declines exceeding 20% since 1990 across emerging and G10 economies. Larger depreciations are associated with stronger export gains, challenging claims that dollar invoicing prevents such benefits.
Read the workTesting whether devaluations support growth requires identifying comparable currency episodes first. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun develop an algorithm that detects 27 large real exchange rate declines across emerging and G10 economies since 1990. This June 2023 installment establishes the sample for subsequent analysis of exports and output, rather than presenting those later results.
Read the workTrade links and portfolio investment gave different signals about economic separation from China in June 2023. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun find little evidence of a material retreat in trade, while foreign direct investment excluding reinvested earnings remained resilient. Reduced nonresident portfolio flows instead pointed to investors cutting financial exposure, distinguishing risk reduction from a broader dismantling of commercial ties.
Read the workFortun and Robin Brooks assess how a possible soft landing could draw investment into emerging markets amid a recovery in distressed sovereign bonds.
View detailsFortun cautions that lower Bolivian risk premiums do not resolve fiscal pressure or the shortage of foreign currency.
View detailsCould euro area inflation turn into a wage and price spiral? Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun compare broadly shared price increases with subdued negotiated wage growth across much of the periphery. Their May 2023 analysis interprets that divergence as evidence of remaining labor market slack and a stronger role for supply shocks, making an aggregate spiral unlikely.
Read the workFinancial sanctions can have different effects on countries that need foreign capital and those earning external surpluses. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle examine how Russia’s 2022 energy windfall supported access to foreign currency despite sanctions. Their May 2023 assessment links that buffer to the rapid easing of domestic financial conditions and the economy’s capacity to sustain the war.
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