How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
504 results
Supply chain normalization explained most of the US disinflation observed in 2023, according to Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun. Their updated models suggested that this downward pressure on inflation still had further to run. Writing in December 2023, they expected its strongest US effect in early 2024 and a later peak in the euro area.
Read the workRising exports to Central Asia accompanied falling direct shipments to Russia after export controls were imposed. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun document these changing trade routes and the enforcement challenges of decentralized goods trade. Their November 2023 analysis explicitly distinguishes unusual trading patterns from evidence of actual export control violations.
Read the workFavorable external conditions underpinned a November 2023 forecast of 2.5% Latin American growth in 2024 excluding Argentina. Martín Castellano, María Paola Figueroa and Jonathan Fortun identified commodity activity, Mexico’s proximity to US production and further monetary easing as potential supports. They expected a prolonged Argentine recession with limited regional spillovers, while emphasizing the advantage for countries that reduced fiscal risk and political uncertainty.
Read the workUS resilience after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and unexpectedly rapid disinflation shaped this November 2023 outlook. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun expected higher yields to weaken housing temporarily, but projected 2% growth in 2024, above consensus. They anticipated core PCE inflation falling to 2.5% by the end of 2024 as supply disruptions faded, and viewed market pricing of roughly three Federal Reserve rate cuts as reasonable. These were forecasts made at publication.
Read the workGeopolitical uncertainty, rising long bond yields and persistent dollar strength shaped the October 2023 meetings in Marrakesh. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun report debates over whether higher rates represented a lasting loss of fiscal space. They also highlight how the strong dollar was restraining emerging market capital flows despite growing confidence in a soft landing.
Read the workFortun links September withdrawals from emerging-market portfolios to higher sovereign yields and expectations that interest rates would stay elevated. The Reuters report separates continued Chinese debt outflows from flows into other developing economies.
View detailsChina’s exchange rate signals in September 2023 appeared at odds with its interest in avoiding another destabilizing devaluation. Robin Brooks, Gene Ma and Jonathan Fortun argue that allowing the renminbi to trade near the weak edge of its band encouraged expectations of a currency adjustment. They interpret much of China’s weakness as a reversal of pandemic spending patterns, rather than a reason to repeat the capital flight associated with 2015.
Read the workUS inflation was looking more like a fading supply shock than a persistent excess demand problem in this August 2023 assessment. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks revisit their view that price pressures had narrowed since mid 2022 and interpret the early 2023 pickup as annual price resets. They argue that more modest underlying inflation could allow faster and larger Federal Reserve rate cuts than markets then anticipated.
Read the work