How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Coverage of an IIF report coauthored by Fortun examines Brazil's fiscal package, near-term risk premiums and the need for a credible medium-term fiscal outlook.
View detailsFortun assesses Latin America's relative appeal within emerging markets and the risks surrounding a possible Federal Reserve pivot.
View detailsThe article contrasts Latin America's December inflows with withdrawals elsewhere. Fortun cautions that risks remain across emerging markets despite expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot.
View detailsForeign investment in emerging-market portfolios fell sharply in 2022. The article cites Fortun's IIF report on interest rates, the dollar and uneven regional flows.
View detailsThe article cites Fortun's IIF report on the sharp decline in 2022 emerging-market investment and remaining risks despite hopes of a Fed policy shift.
View detailsAn assessment of forecasting mistakes in 2022 acknowledges the failure to warn ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The authors also revisit an overly pessimistic European recession forecast and the unexpectedly broad frontier market selloff. The retrospective treats these misses as lessons for economic analysis and risk assessment rather than presenting only successful calls.
Read the workNarrowing inflation across US consumer price components had signaled disinflation before the turn in core inflation, according to this December 2022 analysis by Jonathan Pingle, Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks. They identified early signs of a similar pattern in the euro area as their monthly inflation breadth index fell and price increases slowed in components sensitive to energy costs. The authors anticipated a turn in euro area inflation and argued for a less restrictive ECB stance.
Read the workFortun discusses how interest costs and social spending affect Mexico's fiscal outlook in a regional IIF assessment.
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