How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Historically low US unemployment in early 2020 had not produced a clear acceleration in underlying inflation. Comparing labor force participation with other advanced economies, the analysis argues that substantial unused labor capacity might remain despite the low headline unemployment rate. That distinction matters for judging how close the economy is to its productive limits.
Read the workThe slowdown in emerging economies after the global financial crisis was sharper than the US experience commonly associated with secular stagnation. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks connect that weakness with subdued investment and lower commodity prices. Their December 2019 analysis asks whether forces beyond the commodity cycle were holding back emerging market growth.
Read the workAn inventory correction offered an alternative explanation for weak global manufacturing in late 2019. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks argue that excess stocks, rather than trade tensions disrupting supply chains, accounted for much of the slowdown. By December, an improving leading indicator suggested that the inventory adjustment might be nearing its end.
Read the workPersistently weak inflation challenged estimates that the euro area periphery was close to full employment in 2019. Jonathan Fortun, Robin Brooks and Sergi Lanau explained a Phillips curve method that lowers the estimated unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation when observed inflation is subdued. Their calculations implied substantially more unused labor capacity than the consensus, while remaining consistent with US Congressional Budget Office estimates for the United States.
Read the workGermany’s industrial weakness complicated efforts to lift euro area inflation in October 2019. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks trace pressures from the automotive sector, environmental standards and weak exports to the United Kingdom and Turkey. They argue that this downturn compounded deflation risks already associated with unused economic capacity in the euro area periphery.
Read the workRecession fears, trade tensions and weak emerging market currencies framed the macroeconomic questions for the IIF’s October 2019 Annual Meetings. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks argued that fears of a US and global recession were overstated and that limited supply chain damage left scope for a rebound after a trade truce. They also examined why a positioning overhang was preventing emerging market currencies from benefiting as usual from a more accommodative Federal Reserve.
Read the workFortun discusses how Federal Reserve policy supports international liquidity and affects investment conditions for emerging markets.
View detailsSlower US job creation in October 2019 did not necessarily signal an approaching recession. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks placed the deceleration within a longer trend of tightening labor conditions. Their interpretation was that a maturing labor market could generate fewer additional jobs without implying a deterioration in the broader economic cycle.
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