How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
Research and public conversation
503 results
July 7, 2026
Bloomberg Línea · Quoted expert Original title: Países con gasolina más cara y barata de Latinoamérica en 2026: así quedaron los precios tras inflación energética
Bloomberg Línea reports on how Middle East war pressures pushed up Latin American gasoline prices and energy inflation in 2026. Jonathan Fortun of the IIF said fuel prices no longer track oil mechanically, because taxes, subsidies, stabilization funds and fiscal capacity separated countries more than crude did. He cited Brazil's 6.3% annual gasoline rise and Mexico's flat regular gasoline, and said the second half could bring gradual relief if oil stays near current levels.
Bloomberg Línea reports that gasoline prices rose in Latin America amid the Middle East war, with Uruguay the most expensive at US$8.7 per gallon. Jonathan Fortun of the IIF said fuel prices no longer track oil mechanically, noting Brent fell from near US$118 to about US$72 by July while relief reached pumps unevenly because of taxes, subsidies and fiscal capacity. He said Brazil's gasoline rose 6.3% year on year, and that if oil holds, the second half should bring gradual relief.
Bloomberg Línea reports that Bolivia ended 15 years of a fixed exchange rate and moved to a managed flexible regime. Jonathan Fortun of the IIF explained how the new official rate will be calculated from bank dollar purchases, and cautioned that it is not a clean float because banks cannot sell above that rate plus Bs 0.10. He warned that the margin cannot fix a dollar shortage, and said the key test is whether people can actually buy dollars at that price.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Japan's policy rate has reached 1% amid firmer underlying inflation and pressure on long-term government bonds. Subsidies suppress headline prices, while wage growth, services inflation and a weaker yen could prompt further tightening. Elevated super-long yields reflect fiscal concerns and changing demand, complicating normalization. Wide estimates of the neutral rate favor a flexible assessment of risks over a mechanical policy rule.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun · Phoebe Feng / Institute of International Finance
Financing the United States' role as a destination for global savings is becoming more costly, the authors argue. Its investment-income advantage is narrowing as market-priced portfolio liabilities become more important and respond to interest rates, valuations and hedging costs. Institutional portfolios increasingly channel savings into US assets. The dollar's central position persists, while the income-account cost of supplying those assets grows.
Fortun estimates the economic costs of prolonged Bolivian blockades and explains how lost output, disrupted logistics and higher household prices narrow the space for stabilization.
Fortun challenges outside interpretations of Bolivia centered on commodities and protest, arguing that inherited political institutions and contested state authority shape the reform crisis.