How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Higher long-term rates are prompting a gradual adjustment in private credit valuations, liquidity and refinancing rather than a broad wave of defaults. AI investment and disruption create widening differences among borrowers and sectors. Negotiation and delayed valuation changes can spread stress over time, making underlying risks harder to observe when refinancing remains expensive.
Read the workRepeated US current-account deficits have accumulated a stock of financial claims that helps explain today's global imbalances. Global demand for dollar assets keeps the United States at the center of financing, but increasingly private investors respond to yields, hedging costs and policy credibility. The authors argue that tariffs cannot resolve an imbalance rooted in saving, fiscal policy and demand for US assets, while maintaining that financing system may become more expensive.
Read the workFortun interprets weakness in newly issued Bolivian bonds as a repricing of economic and policy risks.
View detailsThe geopolitical shock reaches beyond oil prices into supply-chain reliability, input costs and financing. Energy-price stabilization would not necessarily remove premiums on gas, fertilizer, shipping and intermediate goods. US consumption, AI investment and energy capacity provide more protection than Europe has, without eliminating exposure. For emerging markets, capital allocation increasingly favors stronger reserves, credible policies and lower energy-import or refinancing risks.
Read the workFortun examines Bolivia's bond-market return before an IMF agreement, arguing that fuel costs, inflation, blockades and entrenched political networks complicate the sequence of stabilization.
View detailsSuccessful AI investment could raise the equilibrium real interest rate by increasing desired investment relative to saving. Demand for energy, computing infrastructure, equipment and skilled workers is already rising, while lasting unit-labor-cost reductions are less evident. A lower equilibrium rate would require a weaker-growth scenario, potentially involving sustained labor-market damage. The authors therefore caution against assuming AI will restore the very low real rates of the 2010s.
Read the workFortun discusses the evolving US tariff litigation and uncertainty over market access for Latin American economies.
View detailsUS growth remains resilient but increasingly reliant on a narrow set of supports. Consumption faces weaker savings and real-income buffers, while AI investment is large enough to affect output, corporate finances and electricity demand. Imported equipment reduces the domestic benefit of that spending. Higher oil prices squeeze households and AI infrastructure, while persistent services inflation limits the Federal Reserve's room to support growth.
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