From global markets to questions of development, money and economic activity.
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Fortun argues that Bolivia's fiscal adjustment faces severe political and employment constraints, challenging bond-market optimism about a straightforward post-election turnaround.
View detailsTariffs create different inflation problems across economies. Higher goods costs affect the United States and its trading partners, while slower growth and stronger currencies ease pressures elsewhere. Emerging market central banks respond unevenly, with Brazil standing out for tightening through June 2025. The Federal Reserve faces its own conflict between tariff inflation and weakening employment.
Read the workEmerging market inflows increasingly reward domestic resilience rather than broad exposure to global markets. The July 2025 assessment contrasts reform momentum and disinflation with fiscal weakness, tariff exposure and currency risk. Strong local bond returns coexist with growing country differentiation, making the durability of policy frameworks central to understanding where capital goes.
Read the workDebt attracted most of June’s $42.8 billion in emerging market portfolio inflows, receiving $32.9 billion compared with $9.9 billion for equities. The July tracker connects the recovery to favorable global conditions while warning that market pricing may not fully reflect the remaining risks.
Read the workFamiliar relationships between US yields, the dollar and global assets are becoming less dependable. Emerging market currencies and sovereign spreads show signs of moving independently of long US rates, while gold reflects demand for protection against institutional and geopolitical uncertainty. Stronger local bond performance points toward investors placing greater value on resilience.
Read the workCapital continues to cross borders despite slower growth and a more fragmented policy environment. This June 2025 report finds recovering emerging market portfolio flows alongside resilient direct investment in India, Brazil and the Gulf. Currency differences and real interest rates shape returns, while institutional strength increasingly determines which economies attract investment amid trade and geopolitical uncertainty.
Read the workThe June 2025 escalation between Israel and Iran raises risks through energy prices, freight costs and financial markets. Higher insurance costs and longer delivery times expose trade vulnerabilities, while dollar demand and currency volatility pressure emerging markets. Baseline forecasts initially remain unchanged, but a downside scenario brings weaker growth and less room for monetary easing.
Read the workThe June 2025 outlook projects global growth slowing to 2.7 percent from 3.1 percent in 2024. A sharper US slowdown, muted activity in Europe and Japan, and China’s reliance on policy support leave the recovery uneven. Emerging economies remain broadly resilient, but investment decisions become more sensitive to differences in domestic policy.
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