Marcello Estevão · Mary Frances Monroe · Jonathan Fortun · Daniel Mendez Delgado · Melanie Idler / Institute of International Finance
Artificial intelligence is reshaping finance and insurance through trading, risk management, customer service, underwriting and claims. Its potential productivity gains come with possible job displacement and wider wage differences. Financial firms are increasing investment while strengthening governance and controls, linking operational adoption to broader questions about growth and financial stability.
Investing.com Brasil (Reuters) · Quoted expert Original title: Fluxos para carteiras de mercados emergentes estão parados após tarifas de Trump, diz IIF
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Trade exposure alone no longer determines the consequences of US tariffs in this May 2025 assessment. Political alignment, negotiation speed and discretionary exemptions create divergent outcomes across countries. Numerous exceptions and an opaque negotiating process complicate corporate planning, turning uncertainty about the rules themselves into an economic constraint.
Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
The May 2025 Japan outlook forecasts growth of 1.2 percent in 2025 and 0.7 percent in 2026, with a temporary contraction as trade frictions meet softer consumption. Services and employment offer some resilience despite manufacturing weakness. Firm wages support gradual monetary normalization, while limited fiscal room constrains the response to slower activity.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Fiscal support and lower interest rates underpin the April 2025 euro area forecast of 0.7 percent growth in 2025 and 1.2 percent in 2026. Trade volatility could cause a temporary contraction, but services and employment cushion weak manufacturing. Easing inflation supports real incomes, while stable sovereign spreads help create conditions for gradual recovery.
The article cites Fortun and Marcello Estevao's IIF assessment of a policy-driven US slowdown within a broader discussion of Federal Reserve independence and international spillovers.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Policy uncertainty reshapes the April 2025 US forecast, which incorporates a shallow recession in the second half of that year. Annual growth is projected at 1.4 percent in 2025 and 0.8 percent in 2026. Tariffs raise expected inflation even as labor conditions soften, making anticipated Federal Reserve cuts conditional on a later inflation peak and persistent economic weakness.