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Chinese creditors’ restructuring terms could materially change recoveries on Sri Lanka’s external bonds. Sergi Lanau and Jonathan Fortun compare scenarios consistent with the country’s debt targets in February 2023. Limited payment moratoria imply lower bond recoveries than broader alignment with Paris Club treatment, illustrating how creditor coordination shapes the outcome for bondholders.
Read the workSeparating the effects of the G7 oil price cap from the EU embargo was essential to judging sanctions in February 2023. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle argue that the embargo had already widened the discount on Russian crude, leaving the cap nonbinding. They examine the representativeness of tanker traffic data and the limits of conclusions available at that early stage.
Read the workGhana’s external debt restructuring is evaluated through recovery scenarios consistent with its targets and conservative macroeconomic assumptions. The January 2023 baseline combines an 8% principal reduction with substantial coupon cuts, producing a value of 38 cents per dollar at a 12% exit yield. A much stronger macroeconomic scenario raises recovery to 47 cents; these are conditional valuations, not a completed exchange outcome.
Read the workFalling natural gas prices did not mean Europe’s energy shock had ended. Robin Brooks, Jonathan Fortun and Jonathan Pingle point to prices still above historical norms and weaker production in industries that use large amounts of gas. Their January 2023 analysis links lower energy demand to economic damage, while emphasizing the continuing loss of purchasing power through the terms of trade.
Read the workCoverage of an IIF report coauthored by Fortun examines Brazil's fiscal package, near-term risk premiums and the need for a credible medium-term fiscal outlook.
View detailsForeign investment returned to Mexican bonds in 2022 after two years of net withdrawals. Jonathan Fortun links the late rebound primarily to global interest rates and the dollar, rather than a uniquely Mexican improvement. He also discusses the appeal of local yields and market depth, while expecting only a gradual recovery in emerging market flows.
View detailsFortun assesses Latin America's relative appeal within emerging markets and the risks surrounding a possible Federal Reserve pivot.
View detailsThe article contrasts Latin America's December inflows with withdrawals elsewhere. Fortun cautions that risks remain across emerging markets despite expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot.
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