通貨、金融システム、政策は経済活動をどう形づくるのか。その背後にある力を、どのように測定するのか。
同じ金融ショックでも、経済への結果は大きく異なりえます。その理由を理解するには、集計された指標の背後にある通貨制度、金融機関、政策の選択を見る必要があります。市場と経済活動をつなぐこの関係が、私のグローバルマクロ経済研究の中心です。
測定も重要な問いの一部です。ユーロ圏の経済的余力に関する研究では、経済が成長できる余地をどう評価するかを検討します。デリバティブ、銀行融資の質、為替評価に関する研究では、リスクとインセンティブが形成される金融上の経路を探ります。日本の分析は、金融政策とその国際的な環境を考える視点を加えます。
これらの研究に共通するのは、金融の仕組みが経済調整にどう影響するかという問いです。このページでは、学術研究、国際機関での分析、社会に向けた議論をつなぎ、異なる手法、市場、時点にわたって考えをたどり、原典の証拠に戻れるようにしています。
主な各カテゴリーの最近の掲載分から、日本語の概要を追加しています。原典のタイトルは原語のまま掲載し、未翻訳の概要は英語で表示します。
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英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Supply chain normalization explained most of the US disinflation observed in 2023, according to Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun. Their updated models suggested that this downward pressure on inflation still had further to run. Writing in December 2023, they expected its strongest US effect in early 2024 and a later peak in the euro area.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Rising exports to Central Asia accompanied falling direct shipments to Russia after export controls were imposed. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun document these changing trade routes and the enforcement challenges of decentralized goods trade. Their November 2023 analysis explicitly distinguishes unusual trading patterns from evidence of actual export control violations.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Favorable external conditions underpinned a November 2023 forecast of 2.5% Latin American growth in 2024 excluding Argentina. Martín Castellano, María Paola Figueroa and Jonathan Fortun identified commodity activity, Mexico’s proximity to US production and further monetary easing as potential supports. They expected a prolonged Argentine recession with limited regional spillovers, while emphasizing the advantage for countries that reduced fiscal risk and political uncertainty.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
US resilience after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and unexpectedly rapid disinflation shaped this November 2023 outlook. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun expected higher yields to weaken housing temporarily, but projected 2% growth in 2024, above consensus. They anticipated core PCE inflation falling to 2.5% by the end of 2024 as supply disruptions faded, and viewed market pricing of roughly three Federal Reserve rate cuts as reasonable. These were forecasts made at publication.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Geopolitical uncertainty, rising long bond yields and persistent dollar strength shaped the October 2023 meetings in Marrakesh. Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun report debates over whether higher rates represented a lasting loss of fiscal space. They also highlight how the strong dollar was restraining emerging market capital flows despite growing confidence in a soft landing.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
Fortun links September withdrawals from emerging-market portfolios to higher sovereign yields and expectations that interest rates would stay elevated. The Reuters report separates continued Chinese debt outflows from flows into other developing economies.
詳細を見る英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
China’s exchange rate signals in September 2023 appeared at odds with its interest in avoiding another destabilizing devaluation. Robin Brooks, Gene Ma and Jonathan Fortun argue that allowing the renminbi to trade near the weak edge of its band encouraged expectations of a currency adjustment. They interpret much of China’s weakness as a reversal of pandemic spending patterns, rather than a reason to repeat the capital flight associated with 2015.
論文を読む英語の概要です。日本語版は順次追加しています。
US inflation was looking more like a fading supply shock than a persistent excess demand problem in this August 2023 assessment. Jonathan Fortun and Robin Brooks revisit their view that price pressures had narrowed since mid 2022 and interpret the early 2023 pickup as annual price resets. They argue that more modest underlying inflation could allow faster and larger Federal Reserve rate cuts than markets then anticipated.
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