How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
Quiet capital flow data can coexist with mounting pressure for dollars. Where financial intermediation is fragmented, adjustment may appear in prices and liquidity buffers instead. Stablecoins add channels through which that pressure can be absorbed without replacing capital flows themselves. Diagnosing emerging market stress therefore requires examining payment infrastructure alongside conventional balance of payments measures.
Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance
A stable US unemployment rate masks a thinner margin for employment growth. Slower labor force expansion has reduced the hiring needed to keep unemployment steady, while broader measures reveal more slack. Jobs are increasingly concentrated in health and education, leaving goods production and tradable sectors with little momentum and weakening the foundations for sustained income gains.