How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Fortun discusses why higher oil prices can increase fiscal pressures in Latin America when fuel subsidies absorb the gains from exports.
View detailsHow long an oil disruption lasts matters more for the U.S. outlook than the size of its first price jump. Shipping and supply pressures could turn energy inflation into weaker real consumption and tighter financial conditions. With underlying labor momentum already softening, these effects could complicate Federal Reserve rate cuts even if oil prices stop climbing.
Read the workFortun discusses what the Federal Reserve's inflation and growth outlook means for Latin American monetary policy.
View detailsEmerging markets face different energy shock risks depending on their import bills, sensitivity to food and fuel inflation, and reliance on foreign investors in domestic debt markets. A vulnerability heatmap brings these channels together while distinguishing structural exposure from market stress. Egypt ranks among the most vulnerable cases, and emerging Asia has the largest concentration of highly exposed economies.
Read the workFortun assesses when a temporary oil windfall can support investment and stronger sovereign balance sheets.
View detailsA FLAR webinar on the outlook and risks for capital flows in Latin America, with discussion of global capital allocation, macroeconomic policy and financial stability.
View detailsFortun compares today's oil-price transmission with the 1970s, emphasizing lower global oil intensity.
View detailsFortun assesses how higher oil prices pass through to inflation and constrain Latin American interest-rate cuts.
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