How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
504 results
Trade exposure alone no longer determines the consequences of US tariffs in this May 2025 assessment. Political alignment, negotiation speed and discretionary exemptions create divergent outcomes across countries. Numerous exceptions and an opaque negotiating process complicate corporate planning, turning uncertainty about the rules themselves into an economic constraint.
Read the workFiscal support and lower interest rates underpin the April 2025 euro area forecast of 0.7 percent growth in 2025 and 1.2 percent in 2026. Trade volatility could cause a temporary contraction, but services and employment cushion weak manufacturing. Easing inflation supports real incomes, while stable sovereign spreads help create conditions for gradual recovery.
Read the workThe article cites Fortun and Marcello Estevao's IIF assessment of a policy-driven US slowdown within a broader discussion of Federal Reserve independence and international spillovers.
View detailsFortun examines Bolivia's foreign-currency constraints and fiscal vulnerabilities amid mounting pressure on sovereign creditworthiness.
View detailsPolicy uncertainty reshapes the April 2025 US forecast, which incorporates a shallow recession in the second half of that year. Annual growth is projected at 1.4 percent in 2025 and 0.8 percent in 2026. Tariffs raise expected inflation even as labor conditions soften, making anticipated Federal Reserve cuts conditional on a later inflation peak and persistent economic weakness.
Read the workFortun relates Bolivia's rising inflation to longstanding economic imbalances rather than a single external shock.
View detailsFortun discusses subdued risk appetite amid higher global interest rates and policy uncertainty following emerging-market portfolio outflows.
View detailsEfforts to weaken the dollar confront the enduring appeal of US assets. This analysis links persistent fiscal deficits, foreign investment and currency strength, arguing that tariffs can redirect trade without resolving the overall external imbalance. Currency intervention alone cannot address a problem rooted partly in fiscal policy and global demand for Treasuries.
Read the work